My good friend Andrew Hui and I were exchanging emails on another amazing season of Oakland A's baseball and I thought it might be nice to publish some of his thoughts on the A's and the 2005 campaign. So...below is a special post by Andrew Hui (so you know Andrew works in the capital markets group of a large financial institution on Manhattan):
Hui on the A's
The A's have roared back into the pennant race which recent history would have indicated. However, the reason might not be in things that have occurred this year or even recently. It probably has to do more with the long-range plans of their general manager, Billy Beane. Beanius has had a long-range plan & is sticking to it without regards to short-term results, much like a good trader on Wall Street. He saw an inefficiency in the market for ballplayers he could exploit & implemented a strict plan to groom & develop young, cheap talent via drafting & the farm system in the late 90s when he took over. It was also partly predicated upon an idea that winning ball games via superior on-field performance builds on itself & trumps all the intangibles (& other b.s.) that pervade talent & team evaluation. Its effectiveness was validated by the 2000 to 2004 playoff run despite having a payroll in the bottom half of the league.
The simultaneous development of perennial Cy Young & MVP candidates told Beanius that his plan was working. It also gave his detractors something to focus on - his "luck" at having the big 3, the Giambino in his prime & Miggy & Chavvy. I surmise that their performance was developed more quickly & may even be enhanced by having an opportunity earlier under the Beanius system because his plan involves playing your best players without regard to age and/or major league service time. He disdained the "proven veteran" concept. Would the big 3 have developed into top-flight starters if under the tutelage/regime of say a Dusty Baker or Lou Piniella or even Tony La Russa? Dollars to doughnuts that they would be struggling long relievers with ERAs in the 5s because of shattered confidence.
However, contrary to popular belief, the main tenet that he held wasn't OBP, OPS, K rate or some other hip statistic. He just believed that you don't have to overpay for performance. He believed that talented players would perform given the opportunity despite their salary. 2005 is not the first time that Beanius has tested this theory. The Giambino, Damon & Izzy all left after 2001 & the A's success did not suffer a significant drop off. Ironically, those players certainly did. The sell off in big names (but not talent) is getting so much attention now because Beanius traded 2 of the big 3. He stuck to his beliefs told him that he could get better value from Haren/Blanton/Harden than Hudson & Mulder. He ignored the short-term results (serious contention for another year) & kept his eye on the big picture (contending for the next 6 years). Early returns say that his vision is again right on the ball. In saving the $12mm in Hudson & Mulder's salary, he got a starter pitching better than Mulder & a hitting prospect (Daric Barton) that will help the A's contend for 6 more years on the cheap when he reaches the majors for good in 2006. And all the while, he is rebuilding without the requisite losing.
Beanius' critics were out in full force earlier in the year when the A's were decimated due to injuries, especially to Crosby & Harden & Zito's ineffectiveness. But Beanius didn't panic & hold a fire sale when everyone else thought he should. He disregarded the short-term returns & stuck to his long-range plan. Now that all the key players are back, Zito is dealing & the A's are rolling. Once again, providing positive results to the Beanius master plan. All this has happened over the past 6-8 years & no one even seems to understand exactly what it is that he is doing, much less why he has been successful. I would venture to say that Moneyball has even helped Beanius & his tactics stay under the radar while supposedly exposing his secrets. The true sign of a genius is that no one even knows you're taking advantage of them.
But before we go overboard on the altar of Beanius, just remember the $9mm the A's have on the DL in Dotel & Durazo. And if that isn't enough, think about who they could of had instead of those 2, Carlos Beltran (traded for Dotel) & David Ortiz (claimed off waivers by the Sox but missed by Beanius because he was enamored with Durazo). And then, how about Bobby Kietly's .160 batting avg. last year & Keith Ginter's .180 batting avg. this year? The albatross of Tlong taking strike 3 in game 5 of the 2003 ALDS? Speaking of the 2003 ALDS, the defining moment for 2 franchises was in G4 of that series when Ortiz doubled in the tying run in the bottom of the 8th in a 12 pitch at bat against Keith 'the Incredible' Foulke. If Foulke could have gotten Ortiz, it could have been the A's celebrated a WS victory & the Sox would have kept right on suffering. But Ortiz did come through & became Big Papi & a legitimate MVP candidate. All this happened because Beanius had the unnatural attraction to Durazo.